You Gotta Hand it to Peter Thiel

Thiel on Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker

You may not like his politics or his contrarian thinking but you got to give credit to Peter Thiel's prescient comments about the 2020 Democratic Primary race. Here's what he said in September 2018 (over a year ago) on the Rubin Report

The revisionist history people like to now say is that Hillary Clinton was this terrible candidate. And no, I think she was the best candidate the establishment could put up. It was just that the ideas were wrong – they didn't make sense.

Hillary Clinton thinks she should run again in 2020 and in a way she is right. From her point of view, I can understand why she thinks that. She is smarter than the other Democrats. She has more experience and within the zombie establishment, it still makes sense for it to be Hillary than someone like Cory Booker or Kamala Harris.

Later on, Thiel was talking about Gen. X vs. Boomers and the conversation dipped back into the 2020 landscape (at the 1:18:30 YouTube mark)

On a political level, it's striking how under-represented we [Gen. X] are. 2020 should be a prime year for a Gen. X presidential candidate on the Democratic side (someone born between 1965 and 1980). I challenge you to name me a single plausible Gen. X Democratic candidate...and don't pick a loser like Cory Booker.

Indeed, as of this writing, per PredictIt, Hillary Clinton's odds of entering the race are roughly 20% and her chance of winning the nomination are in the 7-10% range (see graph here. In contrast, Booker and Harris are currently in the 1-5% range of winning the nomination. In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Harris is currently less than 5% and Booker less than 2%.


Pundits on Both the Left and Right Were Bullish on Kamala Harris


Regarding Biden and Hillary, the Tables Have Turned

One final thought, in 2015, Biden was thinking about entering the race but according to Nate Cohn's New York Times piece, Clinton was his biggest obstacle. Cohn writes “Clinton has done one thing really well: dissuade mainstream opponents by dominating the invisible primary, the behind-the-scenes competition for elite support that often decides the nomination.”

Now in October 2019, from the New York Times: “While Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Bloomberg have both been encouraged to enter the race, Democrats close to them believe the only scenario under which they’d consider running is if Mr. Biden drops out or is badly weakened.”


Chart of Hillary Clinton's Odds of Entering and Winning the 2020 Democratic Primary

Live chart/dashboard:

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