Tracking Who Could be Added to Next Debate
To qualify for the October Democratic debate, candidates must have 130,000 donors and get 2% or more in four qualifying polls from a select list of pollsters by October 1st. Also, two polls from the same pollster cannot count unless they cover a different geography. So far 10 candidates have qualified (Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, and Yang). Three candidates have hit the 130,000 donors but need more polls. Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard, and Marianne Williamson need 1, 2, and 3 more polls respectively.
So far prediction markets are indicating Tom Steyer is likely to make it at 81% (81¢), Tulsi Gabbard is a toss-up at 48%, and Marianne Williamson is unlikely to make it (6%). Everyone else is at 2% or less.
Click here to get the most recent chart. On the chart below, Steyer is the purple line, Gabbard the orange line, and Williamson the lime line.