The Win At Least One Primary Markets

February 10, 2020

As of this writing, PredictIt has 4, 'Will Candidate X Win At Least One Primary?' They are Yang, Bloomberg, Warren, and Buttigieg. Note that only primaries (not caucuses) in the 50 states and DC (sorry Democrats Abroad) will cause the market to resolve to YES.

Here is a chart of the latest moves

Here are the Historical # of Winners

GOP

2016: 4 – Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich (Ohio only), Marco Rubio (D.C. only – MN caucus does not count)
2012: 3 – Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich
2008: 3 – John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee

DEM

2016: 2 – Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
2008: 2 – Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
2004: 4 – John Kerry, Howard Dean (Vermont and D.C. only), John Edwards (South Carolina only, also won NC caucus), Wesley Clark (Oklahoma only)

Resources

Note that Iowa, Nevada, Wyoming are caucus states and PredictIt may consider North Dakota as a caucus. Below are maps for the 4 candidates:

Map of Bloomberg here
Map of Yang here
Map of Steyer here
Map of Warren here