The Win At Least One Primary Markets
As of this writing, PredictIt has 4, 'Will Candidate X Win At Least One Primary?' They are Yang, Bloomberg, Warren, and Buttigieg. Note that only primaries (not caucuses) in the 50 states and DC (sorry Democrats Abroad) will cause the market to resolve to YES.
Here is a chart of the latest moves
Here are the Historical # of Winners
GOP
- 2016: 4 – Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich (Ohio only), Marco Rubio (D.C. only – MN caucus does not count)
- 2012: 3 – Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich
- 2008: 3 – John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee
DEM
- 2016: 2 – Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
- 2008: 2 – Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
- 2004: 4 – John Kerry, Howard Dean (Vermont and D.C. only), John Edwards (South Carolina only, also won NC caucus), Wesley Clark (Oklahoma only)
Resources
Note that Iowa, Nevada, Wyoming are caucus states and PredictIt may consider North Dakota as a caucus. Below are maps for the 4 candidates: