Political Alert Engine Blog

A Blog About Political Prediction Markets

To qualify for the October Democratic debate, candidates must have 130,000 donors and get 2% or more in four qualifying polls from a select list of pollsters by October 1st. Also, two polls from the same pollster cannot count unless they cover a different geography. So far 10 candidates have qualified (Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, and Yang). Three candidates have hit the 130,000 donors but need more polls. Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard, and Marianne Williamson need 1, 2, and 3 more polls respectively.

So far prediction markets are indicating Tom Steyer is likely to make it at 81% (81¢), Tulsi Gabbard is a toss-up at 48%, and Marianne Williamson is unlikely to make it (6%). Everyone else is at 2% or less.

Click here to get the most recent chart. On the chart below, Steyer is the purple line, Gabbard the orange line, and Williamson the lime line.

Candidate Dashboard

Following the first debate, Kamala Harris's chances of winning the nomination on PredictIt rose following the first Democratic debate at the end of June. Her chances then flattened for most of July. After the second debate on July 31st, her performance was viewed unfavorably and her chances fell.

In the chart below, her odds of winning the South Carolina primary is in purple and the nomination overall is in orange. Both are 13 cents as of this writing (8/21 ~9pm CT)

Source: PredictIt, PoliticalAlertEngine.com view chart

Interestingly, up until recently, her South Carolina odds (the purple line) traded at a premium relative to her nomination odds (the orange line). During June (since June 8th, the earliest data we have available), her South Carolina odds were on average 156% (or 1.56x) her nomination odds . In July, this number was 127%. In August thus far, 112% has been normal. At the time of this writing, they are at parity.

Perhaps the best way to go long Kamala Harris is to do so with SC shares.

Disclosure: I do not own shares in either of these two Kamala Harris markets.